NBA recap: Monday, November 9
LineSpy · November 9, 2026 finals
8 games on Monday, November 9, 2026. Favorites won 5 of 8 and covered 4. Totals went over 4 times and under 4. The closing totals missed by 11.4 points on average. Our simulations picked 5 of 8 winners and missed the final total by 10.5 points on average. The biggest upset: the Hornets beat the Cavaliers, who were about 74% to win.
The lines here are the closing consensus: the median across the books once each book’s margin is removed. A favorite “covers” when it wins by more than the spread. Our simulated games come from real season shot profiles and the night’s injury report; checking them against the finals is how we keep them honest. Tonight’s games are on the board.
Pistons 122, Wizards 111
The Pistons were favored by 10.5 with about an 80% win chance; they won by 11 and covered the 10.5-point spread.
The total closed at 219.5 and the game finished with 233: over by 13.5.
Our simulated games had the Pistons by 10 with 220 points, the right winner, and a total 13 points low.
Hornets 124, Cavaliers 112
The Cavaliers were favored by 8.5 with about a 74% win chance; they lost by 12 and lost outright as 8.5-point favorites.
The total closed at 215 and the game finished with 236: over by 21.
Our simulated games had the Cavaliers by 10 with 213 points, the wrong winner, and a total 23 points low.
Lakers 124, Hawks 114
The Hawks were favored by 1.5 with about a 53% win chance; they lost by 10 and lost outright as 1.5-point favorites.
The total closed at 236.5 and the game finished with 238: over by 1.5.
Our simulated games had the Hawks by 1 with 239 points, the wrong winner, and a total 1 points high.
Grizzlies 118, Raptors 102
The Raptors were favored by 2.5 with about a 55% win chance; they lost by 16 and lost outright as 2.5-point favorites.
The total closed at 228.5 and the game finished with 220: under by 8.5.
Our simulated games had the Raptors by 4 with 231 points, the wrong winner, and a total 11 points high.
Mavericks 125, Pacers 122
The Mavericks were favored by 4 with about a 61% win chance; they won by 3 and didn’t cover the 4-point spread.
The total closed at 226.5 and the game finished with 247: over by 20.5.
Our simulated games had the Mavericks by 2 with 227 points, the right winner, and a total 20 points low.
Rockets 110, Nuggets 100
The Rockets were favored by 4.5 with about a 61% win chance; they won by 10 and covered the 4.5-point spread.
The total closed at 223.5 and the game finished with 210: under by 13.5.
Our simulated games had the Rockets by 7 with 216 points, the right winner, and a total 6 points high.
Spurs 122, Suns 96
The Spurs were favored by 8.5 with about a 75% win chance; they won by 26 and covered the 8.5-point spread.
The total closed at 226 and the game finished with 218: under by 8.
Our simulated games had the Spurs by 10 with 224 points, the right winner, and a total 6 points high.
Warriors 138, Pelicans 87
The Warriors were favored by 11.5 with about an 82% win chance; they won by 51 and covered the 11.5-point spread.
The total closed at 229.5 and the game finished with 225: under by 4.5.
Our simulated games had the Warriors by 11 with 229 points, the right winner, and a total 4 points high.
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